The Probability of Induction

The Probability of Induction

chance, frequency, probability, problem of induction

Originally published in the Popular Science Monthly, vol. 12 (April 1878): 705-718. This is the fourth installment of six papers in Peirce's "Illustrations of the Logic of Science" series.

According to Houser and Kloesel (Eds.), The Essential Peirce, vol. 1 (Bloomington: Indiana, 1992), p. 155, in this paper, "Peirce continues to develop his theory of probability and give rules for calculating the probability of multiple events. He compares the conceptualistic view (which refers probabilities to events) with the materialistic view (which makes probability the ratio of the frequency of favorable cases to all cases) and differentiates chance from probability. He argues for the frequency view (which he held until nearly the turn of the century) and then connects his views on probability with the nature of inductive (or synthetic) reasoning and the problem of induction, for which he considers the need for an appeal to possible worlds."

Peirce, Charles Sanders (1839-1914)

Popular Science Monthly, vol. 12 (April 1878): 705-718

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1878-04

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